The large American bank “JP Morgan” estimates that the Russian economy is doing better than expected after the introduction of Western sanctions, and that Russia will face a “shallow” recession, albeit a long one.
The bank states that research on the business mood in the country signals “not too deep recession” in Russia.
The first Western expectations after the sanctions were that the Russian economy would collapse.
“JP Morgan” initially predicted that Russia’s GDP would decrease by 35% in the second quarter compared to the previous one and by 7% by the end of the year.
However, the bank told clients that the Russian economy is in better condition than expected, citing business research and high-frequency indicators such as electricity consumption and financial flows.
“Available data do not indicate a sharp decline in activity – at least at the moment,” JP Morgan analysts concluded.
According to the current forecast, Russia’s GDP in the second quarter is likely to be higher than the forecast in March.