geopolitics-00690
President Donald Trump gestures while speaking during the first presidential debate Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2020, at Case Western University and Cleveland Clinic, in Cleveland, Ohio. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

A new round of polls this week from the Trafalgar Group has President Trump leading Democratic presidential nominee Joseph R. Biden in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan, showing Mr. Trump’s 2016 path to victory has not yet been upset.

The two candidates are also in an incredibly tight race for Wisconsin, according to a recent survey conducted by Robert Cahaly, the chief pollster for Trafalgar Group.

Mr. Cahaly has been described as one of the most accurate pollsters from the 2016 election, and he is now warning about a “hidden Trump vote” not accounted for in other polls.

“I definitely think it is going to be a surprise,” he told The Washington Times on Friday. “I think people just lie to pollsters.”

His Florida poll published Thursday shows Mr. Trump with roughly a three-point lead, 49% to 46.9%. Similarly in Michigan, Mr. Trump is leading 49% to 46.6%.

In Pennsylvania, a Trafalgar Group poll published Tuesday shows Mr. Trump with a 48.4% edge over Mr. Biden’s 47.6%. Both the candidates have been barnstorming the state in recent days, trying to shore up support ahead of Tuesday.

For North Carolina, Mr. Trump has a roughly two-point lead, 48.8% to 46%.